Russia is on the brink of a presidential election that is poised to extend Vladimir Putin’s rule well into this decade and possibly beyond, making him one of Russia’s longest-serving rulers since Soviet times. The election, which is set to take place from March 15 to March 17, 2023, is not a typical electoral process. Rather, it is perceived as a mere constitutional formality designed to legitimize Putin’s continued tenure in power.
The Russian electoral system, under Putin’s dominance, has been fortified ahead of the election. The only anti-war candidate, Boris Nadezhdin, was barred from participating due to insufficient signatures for his nomination, leaving the field clear of opposition voices. Alexey Navalny, a prominent opposition figure and Putin’s most vocal critic, died in prison last Friday under mysterious circumstances, further restricting any anti-Putin sentiments from surfacing.
Voting will take place over three days, with early and postal voting starting beforehand. Early voting has already begun in hard-to-reach regions, including territories occupied by Russian forces in Ukraine. The expansion of voting to these areas is a strategic move for the Kremlin, further cementing its control over these territories and continuing its campaign of Russification.
Putin’s ability to manipulate the electoral process has been evident in previous elections, with candidates tightly controlled by the Central Election Commission (CEC) and a favorable field reducing the potential for an opposition candidate to gain momentum. This year, Nikolay Kharitonov, representing the Communist Party, and two Duma politicians, Leonid Slutsky and Vladislav Davankov, are running. All three candidates have a proven track record of being pro-Kremlin.
The absence of an anti-war candidate in the race is significant, as Putin’s ongoing war in Ukraine remains a contentious issue for many Russians. The invasion has brought the conflict home to many Russians living near the border regions, but support for the war remains high despite economic challenges and potential unrest.
Putin’s political landscape has been skewed dramatically in his favor, with a propaganda machine targeting voters with pro-Putin material and genuine opposition voices silenced. Protests are tightly restricted, making the expression of dissent a rare occurrence. Opposition politicians and activists face harassment, fabricated criminal cases, or outright prevention from participating in the political process.
The Levada Center, a non-governmental polling organization, reports Putin’s approval rating at over 80%, a figure unheard of among Western politicians and an increase from his ratings before the invasion of Ukraine. This approval rating, coupled with the war’s continued support, highlights Putin’s hold on Russia’s population.
National Website security concerns are at the forefront of Russians’ minds as they approach the election, with Ukrainian strikes on Russian border regions intensifying the feeling of being directly affected by the war. Despite economic challenges and potential unrest, Russians do not expect the election to change the direction of the country, as they have never witnessed a democratic transfer of power between rival political parties.
Putin’s former speechwriter, Abbas Gallyamov, has noted that discontent against the president is growing in Russia. The Kremlin aims to eliminate opposition leaders from society, ensuring such discontent remains “unstructured,” “disorganized,” and “leaderless” ahead of future elections. The timing of Navalny’s death served to highlight Putin’s control over Russian politics.
In one of his final court appearances before his death, Navalny urged prison service workers to “vote against Putin.” His death has cast a shadow over the campaign and has fueled international condemnation. Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, has urged the EU to “not recognize the elections,” citing Putin’s manipulation of the process and the absence of genuine opposition voices.
