Title: The Vital Center Path to Reelection for President Biden: Why Ignoring Progressive Pressure Pays Off
Introduction:
The presidential race, with Democrats gearing up for primaries and the general election, is shaping up to feature two widely unpopular candidates in President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. This lengthy political season may test incumbents, especially when progressive activists pressure them to adopt extreme positions on various issues. In this context, it’s crucial for Biden to stay true to his centrist perspective.
Progressive Pressure and Challenges:
Progressive activists are currently targeting President Biden’s policy stances on immigration, energy, and international conflicts, such as the Israel-Hamas war. Rashida Tlaib, a Democratic member of Congress from Michigan, has even urged her constituents to vote “uncommitted” in the state primary as a means of putting pressure on Biden regarding his stance on Gaza. The goal is to persuade him to alter his course and avoid losing votes from progressive voters in the November election.
The Threat of Disillusioned Voters:
Threats from progressive activists often employ a similar tactic: If you don’t adopt our positions, “our voters” won’t support you or turn out in November. Climate activists, for instance, have tried to influence Democrats regarding fossil fuel projects using the same approach. This pressure led President Biden to pause the export of liquid natural gas, but not all Democrats support this controversial decision.
A Misconception about Progressive Base:
The assumption that young people and racial/ethnic minority voters won’t turn out for Democrats unless the party adopts maximally leftist positions on select issues is misguided. Contrary to popular belief, base Democratic voters are predominantly moderate or conservative rather than liberal. In Gallup research, approximately 60% of Black and Hispanic Democrats identified as moderate or conservative, along with around 40% of young people (ages 18-29). Furthermore, when examining the ideological leanings of the whole population in Gallup’s aggregate examination, nearly 40% of American adults classified themselves as moderate, while approximately 36% identified as either conservative or very conservative. Only one quarter identified as liberal or very liberal.
The Impact of Trends on Specific Demographic Groups and Elections:
The decline in Democratic support among Arab Americans, as seen in Michigan, should also be put into perspective. Research from Karlyn Bowman, Nate Moore, and Ruy Teixeira shows that Democratic support among this group has been declining since highs during the Obama years, primarily due to more conservative views on social issues. Despite these larger trends, the authors found that Biden still carried Michigan by over 100,000 votes in the 2020 election even if his advantage in areas with high Arab American populations was completely erased.
Importance of Biden’s Centrist Stance:
While every vote matters in a close election, it is essential to recognize that shifting President Biden’s policy to the left may not be a net gain for him. Pollster Mark Mellman of Democratic Majority for Israel rightly points out that more voters would support Biden due to his pro-Israel stance than would oppose him. Jewish voters, who make up about 2-3% of the electorate, are a significant voting bloc compared to Muslims, who account for less than 1%.
Alignment of Base Democratic Voters with Biden’s World View:
Beyond general ideological orientation, an in-depth examination of the views of young people on key issues animating activists shows a lack of alignment with the loudest voices on the left. For example, Millennial and eligible Gen Z voters support practical all-of-the-above energy solutions over eliminating fossil fuels. Similarly, a majority of young people (18-29) and those aged 30-49 view the large numbers of migrants seeking to enter the US at the Mexican border as a crisis or major problem, and approximately two-thirds of Black adults and three-quarters of Hispanic adults agree.
Conclusion:
The 2024 election is expected to be a close one, making every vote crucial. However, it would be a mistake for President Biden to believe that adopting extreme leftist positions would be a net gain for him. Instead, he should stay true to his centrist perspective and differentiate himself from the progressive left to appeal to a broader electorate. The path to reelection for Biden lies through the vital center, not through the noisy left.
