Title: Iran’s Struggling Economy and Political Unrest Threaten Record-Low Voter Turnout Ahead of Upcoming Legislative Elections
Iran is witnessing a significant push to boost voter turnout for the upcoming legislative elections on March 1, 2025. With over 15,000 candidates vying for the 290-seat parliamentary election and another 144 contenders for the 88 seats of the Assembly of Experts, which holds the power to appoint the next Supreme Leader, the stakes are high. However, calls for citizens to participate in the democratic process may fall on deaf ears due to growing economic hardships, political distrust, and a quashed protest movement.
Voter turnout is anticipated to be at record lows, with many disgruntled Iranians refusing to engage in an electoral process that appears as a mere propaganda tool. The widespread crackdown on dissent following the 2022 protest movement, which was triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, has disqualified candidates opposed to the current hardline government. Rights groups have reported an intensification in suppression of dissent since then.
The incoming Assembly will be crucial, as it may select the successor to the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is over 84 years old. In an attempt to rally voters, Iranian officials have appealed to their sense of duty and resistance in the face of external threats, such as Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza. However, many Iranians are skeptical of these appeals and view them as a desperate attempt to manipulate public sentiment.
Hamidreza Moghadamfar, an adviser to the chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has directly cited the Gaza war as a reason for Iranians to vote. In his speech, he accused “the biggest supporters of the massacre in Gaza” of being the same individuals who oppose the Iranian people’s participation in the democratic process. This rhetoric reflects a broader effort to galvanize national unity against external adversaries, such as Israel and the United States, which many Iranians vehemently oppose.
Despite widespread anger towards these adversaries, it remains unclear whether this sentiment will be enough to bring out a significant number of voters. A 23-year-old Iranian woman from Tehran, who spoke with CNN anonymously due to fear of retribution by authorities, stated that she would not participate in the elections. “They (elections) are a show and propaganda,” she said. “Participating in such events is being complicit and helping their political agenda.”
Although over 61 million of Iran’s 87 million eligible citizens are expected to cast their votes, there is a growing perception that the democratic process in Iran has become a mere formality. Declining trust in the regime, coupled with ongoing economic hardships and repression, have contributed to diminishing voter turnout in recent years. The last presidential election, which brought hardliner Ebrahim Raisi to power, saw a turnout of 48.8%, down from the 85% in 2009.
This year’s legislative election is anticipated to have the lowest turnout in Iran’s 45-year history, according to Holly Dagres, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. She attributes this trend to systemic corruption, mismanagement, and repression by the state, as well as the illegitimacy of the clerical establishment in the eyes of the Iranian people.
Despite these challenges, it’s essential to note that turnout may vary significantly between urban and rural areas. In smaller cities and towns, higher levels of electoral participation are expected due to a stronger sense of connection to the central government. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the upcoming elections are taking place more than a year after mass protests rocked the country and were met with a violent crackdown.
UN experts have urged Iran to learn from the tragic death of Mahsa Amini and implement reforms based on respect for human rights. However, the government’s response to the protests has shown a reluctance to do so. International watchdogs have consistently criticized Iran for holding elections that are neither free nor fair, and this year’s electoral process will be no exception due to a vetting process that restricts the types of candidates permitted to run.
The Iranian authorities have made it clear that boycotts will not be tolerated, with reports of detentions for those advocating for a boycott. A Kurdish resident in Sanandaj province was arrested after urging others not to vote, highlighting the potential risks associated with expressing political dissent.
Crippled by Western sanctions since 1979 and grappling with economic hardships, many Iranians face significant challenges that may deter them from participating in the democratic process. The ongoing waves of attacks between the United States and regional militias backed by Tehran further exacerbate these difficulties, as evidenced by Iran’s currency dropping sharply in response to the escalating regional conflicts.
In conclusion, the upcoming legislative elections in Iran are set against a backdrop of economic instability, political distrust, and repression. While officials may appeal to national unity and external threats to encourage participation, it remains uncertain whether these efforts will be enough to overcome the deep-rooted skepticism and economic hardships that have contributed to declining voter turnout in recent years.
