The 2024 Presidential Election: A Tight Race Between Joe Biden and Donald Trump
The upcoming 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be an intriguing rematch between the current President, Joe Biden, and his predecessor, Donald Trump. This marks the first presidential contest since 1956 featuring a current and former president squaring off against each other, adding an unprecedented dimension to the race.
However, unlike in 2020 when Biden held a clear advantage over Trump, his reelection campaign is facing a more challenging terrain this time around. According to recent polls, the gap between the two contenders has narrowed significantly. The New York Times/Siena College, CBS News/YouGov, Fox News, and The Wall Street Journal polls revealed that Trump held a slight edge over Biden by margins ranging from 2 to 4 percentage points. Although these results fell within the margin of error, they collectively indicate a cause for concern for Biden’s supporters.
In contrast to the 2020 campaign, where Biden was favored nationally and held narrow victories in key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, the current state of polling paints a picture of an incumbent struggling to maintain his footing.
Furthermore, Biden’s position in the Sun Belt battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada has weakened significantly since 2020. He trails Trump by more than five percentage points in these states, making it a significant challenge for him to secure reelection if he fails to carry these regions.
However, Biden still holds an advantage in Michigan, where the polls suggest a narrow lead for Trump of approximately 4 percentage points. The state’s importance to Biden’s electoral college prospects cannot be overstated, as he currently relies on its electoral votes to reach the 270-vote threshold needed for victory.
The eight months remaining before the election offer Biden an opportunity to regain momentum and close the gap against Trump. However, the current polling trends suggest that it won’t be easy for him to overcome his popularity deficit. Biden currently holds an approval rating below 40%, making him the least popular elected incumbent at this stage of a reelection campaign since World War II. The two most recent presidents with similar approval ratings (Trump and George H.W. Bush in 1992) both lost their reelections.
Despite Biden’s approval woes, some Democrats argue that focusing solely on his ratings is not a fair assessment, as Trump’s unfavorable ratings exceed his favorables. However, recent polling data indicates that Trump’s favorability has edged slightly above Biden’s, marking a significant reversal from the trends observed during the 2020 campaign.
To win reelection, Biden will need to not only attract voters who dislike both candidates but also win them over by a substantial margin to offset his popularity deficit. With less than 5% of voters undecided about their preference for Biden or Trump, the next eight months will be critical in determining which candidate’s weaknesses become more salient to voters.
Another potential keyboards-changer could be the ongoing criminal indictments against Trump, which include a New York hush money case that is slated for trial before the presidential election. The outcomes of these trials could sway undecided voters or further solidify supporters’ allegiances, but it remains uncertain how much impact they will have on the election’s outcome.
Ultimately, the next eight months will likely determine whether Biden or Trump can effectively capitalize on their opponents’ weaknesses to secure a second term in the White House. The race is tight, and both candidates face unique challenges that will test their campaign strategies and appeal to voters. Stay tuned for further developments in this closely-watched rematch between two political heavyweights.
