The Senate Race in the 2024 Presidential Election: A Battleground for Power and Policy
The presidential race may dominate the headlines during an election year, but the importance of Senate races should not be underestimated. The Senate plays a critical role in shaping American policy through the confirmation of government officials and Supreme Court nominees. In this year’s performance for the Senate, we see the same competing forces at play: favorable election fundamentals for Republicans and stronger candidate quality for Democrats.
The Math and the Map: Democrats’ Challenges
Democrats face two significant challenges in the 2024 Senate race – the math and the map. To secure a majority, Democrats need to prevent Republicans from gaining a net total of one seat if Donald Trump wins the presidency or two seats regardless of who takes the White House.
Republicans hold an advantage in terms of the number of Senate seats up for grabs this election cycle, with 23 Democratic seats and only 11 Republican ones on the ballot. This presents Democrats with a challenging landscape.
The Impact of Election Fundamentals and Candidate Quality
Election fundamentals favor Republicans this year, but the quality of candidates may prove critical. Democrats currently hold a slim majority in the Senate, with 50 seats and Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote.
The Math of Winning Senate Control: Democrats’ Challenges
To achieve a majority, Democrats need to win at least one additional seat if Trump wins the presidency or two seats if he loses. They currently have 23 Senate seats up for election, which provides them with several opportunities to gain ground. However, eight of these Democratic seats are in states that either voted for Trump in 2016 or have him leading by at least five points currently. Five of these eight seats are in states where Trump holds a lead of at least five points, making them particularly challenging for Democrats to defend.
The Importance of Individual Senate Races
One such vulnerable Democratic seat is in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring and Trump won the state by a substantial margin of 39 points in 2020. This seat is widely viewed as a safe Republican pickup, leaving Democrats with few viable options for gaining the additional seat they need to secure a majority.
The Role of Popular Democratic Candidates and Unpopular Republican Ones
Democrats have an advantage in some competitive races due to the popularity of their candidates. Senators Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, for instance, have positive net favorability ratings, while Biden’s numbers are underwater in these states. In Arizona, Republicans could be nominating a controversial figure like Kari Lake, who lost the gubernatorial election in 2022 and has an unfavorable score with state voters.
The Impact of Historical Trends on the Senate Race
In recent history, only one state – Maine in 2020 – has voted differently in the presidential and Senate races. Trump’s polling advantage in several competitive states, such as Arizona, Nevada, Montana, and Ohio, is substantial. These states are unlikely to switch sides this election cycle. Additionally, Democrats would need to lose all of their currently competitive races and then lose in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maryland to relinquish their Senate majority.
Conclusion: The Importance of the Senate Race in 2024
Republicans have a clear advantage in the math and map of the 2024 Senate race. Democrats face an uphill performance to maintain their majority, with no margin for error. While election fundamentals favor Republicans, individual candidates’ popularity and past trends may influence the outcome of specific races. The importance of this Senate performance cannot be overstated, as it will significantly impact American policy for years to come.