South Africa’s Election: An In-Depth Analysis of Preliminary Results Suggesting a Major Political Shift Since Apartheid
“Democracy is not a spectator sport.” – Former South African President Thabo Mbeki
Background:
South Africa held its sixth democratic election on the 8th of May 2019. This electoral event was significant due to the preliminary results indicating a major political shift since the end of Apartheid in 199The African National Congress (ANC), the party that has been in power since the country’s transition to democracy, suffered its worst electoral performance to date.
Election Results:
According to the link, the ANC received approximately 57.5% of the votes in the 2014 election, while the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) garnered 22.3% and 6.4% respectively. However, in the 2019 election, the ANC’s vote share dropped to approximately 57.51%. The DA and EFF increased their vote shares to 20.8% and 10.8% respectively. This 3 percentage point loss for the ANC represents a significant shift in South African politics.
Why the Shift?
The causes of this political shift are multifaceted. Some argue that it is a response to the ANC’s perceived failure to address the socio-economic challenges facing South Africa, such as high unemployment and inequality. Others point to a growing youth population that is increasingly disillusioned with the ANC and seeking alternatives.
Impact on Political Landscape:
This political shift has significant implications for South Africa’s future. It suggests that the ANC’s dominance of South African politics may be coming to an end, and that new political alliances and coalitions are emerging. It also highlights the need for the ANC to address the grievances of its constituency and regain their trust if it intends to remain in power.
South Africa’s Democratic History and the 2021 Election: A Significant Shift
South Africa‘s democratic history is a testament to the power of the people and their determination to reclaim their rights after decades of oppressive rule. From 1948 to 1990, the country was governed under the apartheid system, a policy of institutionalized racial segregation and discrimination. However, in 1990, President F.W. de Klerk began the process of transitioning to democracy by releasing Nelson Mandela, the iconic anti-apartheid activist, and other political prisoners. This period, known as negotiated democracy, lasted until the first fully democratic elections in 1994.
Transition from Apartheid to Democracy (1990-1994)
During this time, a Constitutional Assembly was established to draft a new constitution that would protect the human rights of all South Africans. The Constitution of South Africa, which was adopted on 4 February 1997, is one of the most comprehensive and progressive constitutions in the world. It enshrines the principles of non-racialism, non-sexism, and the supremacy of the law.
Importance of Regular, Free, and Fair Elections
Since then, regular, free, and fair elections have been a crucial part of South Africa’s democratic journey. These elections provide an opportunity for the citizens to exercise their right to choose their leaders and hold them accountable. They also strengthen the institutions of democracy, such as the judiciary and parliament, which are essential for upholding the rule of law and protecting human rights.
Statement of the Issue: Preliminary Results from South Africa’s 2021 Election
Against this backdrop, the preliminary results from South Africa’s 6 May 2021 election indicate a significant political shift since apartheid. The ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), which has been in power since the end of apartheid, has suffered its worst electoral losses yet. The main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), and a new party, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), have gained significant ground, raising questions about the future of South Africa’s democratic journey.
Background to the 2021 Election
Electoral process and key players:
The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), as the chief electoral body in South Africa, played a pivotal role in organizing and managing the 2021 election. Political parties, both established and new, actively campaigned to win the hearts and minds of voters in preparation for this significant democratic event. The voters, being the ultimate decision-makers, were expected to turn up en masse at polling stations on election day, armed with their identity documents.
Key issues in the 2021 election campaign:
Economic challenges:
The 2021 election campaign was dominated by economic challenges, with the three most pressing issues being high levels of unemployment, deep-seated poverty, and widening inequality. These concerns, in turn, fuelled public discontent and shaped voter preferences as they sought answers from their preferred political parties.
Political instability:
Party alliances, coalitions, and internal infighting were also key issues in the 2021 election campaign. Political instability, fueled by power struggles among various factions within parties, created uncertainty and doubt among voters regarding the commitment of these parties to serve their best interests.
Social unrest:
The 2021 election was further complicated by widespread social unrest, manifested in service delivery protests and xenophobic violence. These incidents tested the abilities of political parties to address citizens’ grievances effectively, as well as their capacity to maintain law and order in their communities.
Importance of the 2021 election in the context of South Africa’s political landscape:
Impact on national unity and reconciliation:
The 2021 election represented an opportunity for South Africa to continue its democratic progress, promote national unity, and reconcile divisions left by past injustices. The peaceful conduct of the election would underscore the nation’s commitment to upholding its democratic values and respect for human rights.
Implications for governance and stability:
The outcome of the 2021 election would also have significant implications for governance and national stability. A stable government capable of addressing economic challenges, reducing political instability, and managing social unrest was crucial for South Africa’s continued development as a democratic nation.
I Preliminary Election Results: Signs of a Major Political Shift
Overview of the initial election results as of 19 May 2021:
South Africa held its sixth democratic elections on 8 May 2021, with preliminary results indicating a significant shift in political power. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) suffered its worst electoral performance since the end of apartheid, securing just over 50% of the votes. The opposition parties, led by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), made substantial gains.
Analysis of the shifts in political power:
Decline of the African National Congress (ANC):
a. Reasons for ANC’s loss of support:
- Economic failures and corruption scandals: High unemployment, rising poverty, and income inequality continue to challenge the ANC’s legitimacy. Corruption scandals such as State Capture have further eroded public trust.
- Policy missteps and infighting: The ANC’s policy direction has been unclear, with some factions pushing for neoliberal reforms while others advocate for a more radical economic agenda. Internal infighting and power struggles have also weakened the party.
b. Implications for governance and stability:
The ANC’s decline may lead to a more fragmented political landscape, potentially increasing instability. However, it also presents an opportunity for the party to re-examine its policies and address the root causes of discontent.
Rise of new political formations:
a. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF):
Background, ideology, and leadership:: The EFF was founded in 2013 by Julius Malema, a former ANC Youth League leader expelled for disciplinary reasons. The party advocates for radical land reform and economic transformation, positioning itself as an alternative to the ANIts support base is primarily urban and young.
b. Gains in the 2021 election:
The EFF secured 10.8% of the national votes, up from 6.35% in 2019. Its influence extends beyond its parliamentary representation, as it holds significant sway over labor unions and other civic organizations.
Other smaller parties:
a. Agang SA, Freedom Front Plus, and Inkatha Freedom Party:
Agang SA, led by Patricia de Lille, secured 1.34% of the national votes. Freedom Front Plus, a right-wing party, received 2.37%. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), with its traditional support base among Zulu voters, managed to secure 10.5% of the votes.
b. Their roles in the 2021 election and potential future impact:
These parties may influence policy debates, potentially forming coalitions or alliances to increase their bargaining power. Their impact on governance and stability depends on their ability to build a broad coalition and negotiate effectively.
Coalitions and alliances:
The National Council of Provinces (NCOP) and the possibility of a coalition government:
Analysis of the potential coalitions and their implications for governance, stability, and national unity:
The NCOP, South Africa’s upper house, could play a crucial role in shaping the next government. Coalition negotiations may lead to unexpected alliances and policy shifts. Stability will depend on the ability of political actors to compromise and work together in the national interest.
| Political Party | Percentage of National Votes (2021) |
|---|---|
| African National Congress (ANC) | 50.1% |
| Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) | 10.8% |
| Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) | 10.5% |
| Freedom Front Plus (FF+) | 2.37% |
| Agang SA | 1.34% |
Conclusion
Recap of the main findings:
The preliminary results from South Africa’s 2021 election reveal a notable political shift since the end of apartheid. The ANC, which has ruled South Africa since the country’s transition to democracy, is experiencing a significant loss of support. In contrast, new political formations, such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the Democratic Alliance (DA), are gaining strength.
Implications for the future:
These shifts in South Africa’s political landscape carry both positive and negative consequences. On the one hand, they may lead to greater representation and accountability, as new voices and perspectives are introduced into the political arena. On the other hand, they could contribute to political instability and policy uncertainty, as parties jostle for power and negotiate coalition agreements.
Call for continued vigilance and engagement:
Amid these changes, it is essential to maintain a vigilant eye on South Africa’s electoral process. Regular, free, and fair elections are crucial in ensuring the ongoing development and stability of the country’s democracy. Citizens, civil society organizations, and international observers must remain engaged to protect this fundamental right and hold those in power accountable.
Final thoughts:
The 2021 election is a critical moment for South Africa, with far-reaching implications for its political landscape and future. As the country navigates this period of transition and change, it is crucial to remember the importance of unity, dialogue, and compromise in building a more just and equitable society for all South Africans.