Iranians
are gearing up for an early presidential election on June 18, 2021, following the sudden resignation of President Hassan Rouhani earlier this year. This unexpected development comes amidst ongoing political and economic instability in Iran.
Background
Rouhani’s decision to step down ahead of schedule was a surprise, given that he was eligible for a second term. His departure marks the end of an era in Iranian politics, as he is known for his relatively moderate stance and efforts to improve relations with the international community, particularly with regard to the controversial nuclear deal.
Current Political Landscape
The political climate in Iran is fraught with tension, both internally and externally. Domestic unrest, fueled by economic hardships and government repression, has persisted for months. Meanwhile, Iran’s relations with neighboring countries and major world powers have soured due to various disputes and escalating tensions.
Candidates and Campaigns
Several high-profile candidates have emerged in the race to succeed Rouhani. Among them are Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline conservative with strong ties to Iran’s powerful religious institutions, and Abdolnaser Hemmati, a pragmatic economist who has expressed a willingness to engage with the West. The campaigns have been characterized by intense rhetoric and promises to address pressing issues, such as unemployment, inflation, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Implications for Iran and the World
The outcome of this election is expected to have significant implications for Iran’s domestic politics and its foreign policy. Depending on who wins, Iran could experience a shift towards more conservative or more pragmatic policies, which in turn could affect its relations with other countries and international organizations. For instance, a hardline government may further antagonize the United States, while a more conciliatory one could seek to re-engage in diplomatic efforts.
I. Introduction
Iran’s political system, established after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, is characterized as a theocratic-republican regime. This unique political structure combines elements of religion and democracy with the Grand Ayatollah serving as the spiritual leader, and the President leading the governmental affairs. The President, as both the head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, holds significant power in Iran’s complex political landscape.
Brief overview of Iran’s political system and the role of the presidency
The theocratic-republican nature of Iran’s government allows for the supreme religious leader to influence state policies while the President executes them. This system aims to preserve and maintain Islamic principles within the country’s governance. The President, elected through popular vote, plays a crucial role in shaping domestic and foreign policies.
Announcement of early presidential election and its significance
In a surprising turn of events, Iran’s authorities announced an early presidential election on June 18, 202The decision came following the death of the incumbent President, Hassan Rouhani, and the end of his term in less than a month. The early election holds substantial
significance
- Reasons for holding an early election: The authorities may want to capitalize on the momentum of a popular figure, or they might aim to contain potential unrest and instability following Rouhani’s death. Additionally, Iranian voters will have the opportunity to choose a President before the resumption of high-stakes nuclear negotiations with world powers.
- Impact on the political landscape: The early election could potentially reshuffle the Iranian political scene, bringing in new players and alliances. It also highlights the ongoing power dynamics between the religious and secular forces within the country.
Background and Context
Previous presidential elections in Iran
Iran’s presidential elections, held every four years, are a significant political event in the Islamic Republic. Since the first election in 1980, following the Islamic Revolution, these polls have reflected the country’s historical context. The revolution brought an end to the monarchy and established a theocracy under Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Since then, elections have been used as a tool to legitimize the ruling elite and maintain popular support, while also serving as a platform for political contests among various factions.
Historical context of Iranian presidential elections
The first post-revolutionary elections in 1980 were held amidst a highly polarized political climate, with numerous candidates vying for power. Ali Khamenei, who would later become the Supreme Leader, won the election. Subsequent elections in the 1980s and early 1990s saw a dominance of moderate and pragmatic forces, represented by figures such as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami. These leaders focused on improving Iran’s economic situation, engaging with the international community, and expanding civil liberties.
Major political trends and issues
However, the 1997 election marked a turning point with the victory of reformist Mohammad Khatami. His tenure saw an unprecedented period of political openness, including increased press freedoms and the emergence of civil society organizations. However, Khatami’s efforts were met with resistance from conservative forces. The 2005 election resulted in the triumph of Mahmud Ahmadinejad, a hardliner who pursued an aggressive foreign policy and suppressed internal dissent. The 2009 election, which saw widespread allegations of fraud in favor of Mahmud Ahmadinejad’s re-election, sparked massive protests and marked a significant period of political unrest.
Current political climate in Iran
Currently, Iran is facing a complex and challenging political climate. Economically, the country grapples with high inflation rates, unemployment, and an increasingly younger population. Social unrest and protests have been on the rise, fueled by frustration over living conditions and a desire for greater political freedoms. Geopolitical tensions have also intensified, with Iran’s nuclear program and relations with the United States and Israel serving as major points of contention.
Economic challenges
The Iranian economy has been suffering from a combination of internal mismanagement and external sanctions, leading to a severe economic downturn. The United States’ re-imposition of sanctions in 2018 has exacerbated the situation, further limiting Iran’s access to international markets and financial institutions.
Social unrest and protests
In response to the economic hardships, Iranians have taken to the streets in mass protests. The most notable of these demonstrations were those that began in late 2017 and continued into early 2018, with citizens expressing their frustration over economic conditions and the government’s handling of the situation. The protests were met with a violent crackdown by security forces, resulting in numerous deaths and arrests.
Geopolitical tensions
The geopolitical climate surrounding Iran has become increasingly volatile, with various powers seeking to exert influence over the country. The United States’ withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and re-imposition of sanctions has heightened tensions between Iran and the international community. Additionally, Israel’s continued military action against Iranian targets in Syria and allegations of an Iranian involvement in acts of terrorism have fueled a dangerous escalation of conflict.
I Candidates and Their Campaigns
Overview of potential candidates
Current officeholders:
Ebrahim Raisi and Saeed Jalili are two prominent current officeholders expected to run in the upcoming Iranian presidential election. Ebrahim Raisi, a former head of the Astan Quds Razavi Foundation and the current chief justice, is known for his conservative stance on various issues. Saeed Jalili, a nuclear negotiator under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency, is also considered a hardliner with strong nationalist views.
Reformists and moderates:
Hassan Rouhani and Mostafa Tajzadeh represent the reformist and moderate camp in this election. Hassan Rouhani, a former nuclear negotiator, was elected president in 2013 and is credited for Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers. He has promised to continue pursuing diplomacy and economic reforms. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former deputy interior minister, has a history of advocating for democracy and human rights in Iran.
Newcomers:
Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh and Mohsen Mehralizadeh are two newcomers to the political scene. Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh, a former IRGC commander, has presented himself as a pragmatic figure who can address economic challenges. Mohsen Mehralizadeh, on the other hand, is an intellectual and a journalist known for his liberal views and opposition to the establishment.
Campaign issues and key themes
Economic development and prosperity:
The economy is a major issue in this election, with candidates proposing various solutions to tackle high unemployment, inflation, and poverty. Some candidates promise to continue Rouhani’s economic reforms, while others advocate for a more interventionist approach.
Social and cultural policies:
Social and cultural issues are also significant in this election, with candidates expressing their views on women’s rights, freedom of speech, and the role of religion in society. Reformists generally support greater freedoms and rights, while hardliners emphasize traditional values and religious principles.
Foreign relations and diplomacy:
The future direction of Iran’s foreign policy is another important theme in this election, with candidates discussing their approaches to regional tensions and diplomacy with the international community.
Campaign tactics and strategies
Use of social media and grassroots mobilization:
Social media has become an essential tool for political campaigns in Iran, with candidates using platforms like Telegram to reach out to voters and mobilize support. Some candidates have also organized grassroots campaigns, such as rallies and town hall meetings.
Traditional methods of campaigning:
Despite the importance of social media, traditional methods of campaigning like rallies, speeches, and debates still play a role in Iranian elections. Candidates often travel around the country to hold meetings and speak to voters in person.
Political Dynamics and Competition: The Iranian political landscape is characterized by complex alliances and coalitions among various groups, each with distinct ideologies and interests. Within this context, two major factions have emerged: the Conservatives, composed of Principalists and hardliners, and the Reformists, which includes Moderates and pragmatists.
Alliances and coalitions among political groups:
The Conservatives, traditionally associated with the religious establishment, have maintained a stronghold on power through their control of key institutions such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the judiciary, and the Council of Guardians. They advocate for a strict interpretation of Islamic law, emphasize Iran’s role as a regional power, and reject any perceived external influence on Iranian politics.
The Reformists, on the other hand, seek to promote political openness and social change within Iranian society. They have advocated for greater individual freedoms, more democratic institutions, and improved economic conditions. Though they have faced significant challenges in the form of electoral fraud and government repression, they continue to enjoy support from a significant segment of the Iranian population.
Role of external actors:
The elections in Iran do not take place in a vacuum, as external actors often play a significant role in the election process. The US, Europe, Russia, and China have all sought to influence Iranian politics through various means. Diplomatically, these actors have engaged in extensive efforts to shape the outcome of elections by issuing public statements, providing political support to favored candidates, and facilitating dialogue between Iranian leaders and their counterparts.
Economically and politically, external actors have applied pressure on Iranian leaders to change their policies or align with specific interests. Sanctions imposed by the US and Europe, for instance, have aimed to weaken Iran’s economy and force concessions on its nuclear program and regional behavior. These pressures can impact the election process by shaping the economic conditions that voters face and influencing the rhetoric of candidates.
Potential for electoral fraud, irregularities, and protests:
Despite efforts to ensure fair elections, the potential for electoral fraud, irregularities, and protests remains a significant concern in Iran. The Council of Guardians, which has the power to disqualify candidates based on its interpretation of Islamic law, has been criticized for bias and manipulation. Additionally, Iran’s complex electoral system can make it difficult to verify the accuracy of vote counts and identify instances of fraud or irregularities.
Protests, which have occurred in response to perceived electoral malfeasance or political repression, can further complicate the election process and potentially lead to violence and instability. The potential for protests and unrest underscores the importance of transparent and fair elections in maintaining stability within Iranian society and reducing tensions with external actors.
Conclusion
Expected Outcomes of the Election and Their Implications
The upcoming presidential election in Iran is shaping up to be a significant event with far-reaching consequences for both domestic policy directions and foreign relations. Bold and decisive victories by any of the major contenders could signal a shift in Iran’s political landscape, with potential implications for economic and social issues, as well as
geopolitical tensions and diplomatic relations
. A win for the incumbent, Hassan Rouhani, could pave the way for continued engagement with the international community and potential economic reforms. However, a victory for hardliner candidates, such as Ebrahim Raisi or Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, could lead to a more confrontational approach towards the West and a potential hardening of Iran’s stance on various issues.
Future Challenges for the Incoming President
Regardless of who ultimately emerges as the victor, the incoming president will face a host of challenges in the coming years. In economic and social arenas, addressing inflation, unemployment, and income inequality will remain major priorities, as will modernizing the economy and increasing competitiveness. On the
geopolitical front
, managing tensions with neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Israel will be crucial, particularly given the ongoing instability in the region. Additionally, engaging with the international community on issues of nuclear proliferation, human rights, and regional security will continue to be a key challenge for Iran’s leaders.
Prospects for Political Change in Iran and the Region
The outcome of this election could also have broader implications for political change in Iran and the Middle East more broadly. A victory for a reformist or centrist candidate could provide an opportunity for greater openness and engagement with the international community, potentially leading to a more peaceful and stable regional environment. Conversely, a victory for hardliners could exacerbate tensions with the West and fuel further instability in the region. As the world waits for the results of this critical election, one thing is certain: Iran’s role on the global stage will continue to be a significant and complex issue in the years to come.
