Biden and Trump Seek to Hold Together Fraying Coalitions in Battleground Georgia: An In-Depth Outline
Introduction:
As the 2020 United States Presidential Election approaches, both President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are focusing their efforts on winning over voters in the crucial battleground state of Georgia. With polls showing a tight race between the two candidates, each is seeking to hold together their respective coalitions in this southern state.
Trump’s Coalition:
Evangelical Voters:
President Trump has long enjoyed strong support from Georgia’s evangelical community. In the link, Trump received 81% of the votes from white evangelical Protestants in Georgia. However, recent polls suggest that this support might be waning, with some surveys showing Biden narrowly leading or even surpassing Trump among this crucial voting bloc.
Rural Voters:
Another important component of Trump’s coalition in Georgia is the state’s rural voters. In 2016, Trump carried 73% of votes from rural areas in Georgia. While some polls suggest that Biden has made gains among suburban voters, Trump still maintains a strong presence in rural areas due to his “law and order” message and his perceived support for gun rights.
Biden’s Coalition:
Suburban Voters:
One of the most significant shifts in the Georgia electorate has been the movement of suburban voters away from the Republican Party. In recent years, the once reliably red suburbs around Atlanta have become increasingly Democratic. This trend has continued in 2020, with many polls showing Biden leading Trump by a significant margin among suburban voters in Georgia.
Black Voters:
A key component of Biden’s coalition in Georgia is the state’s black voters, who have traditionally supported Democratic candidates. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 90% of the votes from black Georgians. While Biden is expected to receive a similar level of support from this demographic, there are concerns about low turnout among black voters due to the ongoing pandemic and other factors.
Conclusion:
In the final stretch of the 2020 election campaign, both Biden and Trump are working to hold together their coalitions in Georgia. While Trump continues to rely on support from evangelical voters and rural areas, Biden is focusing on suburban voters and black Georgians. The outcome of the race in Georgia could have significant implications for the presidency and control of the Senate.
Georgia, a southern U.S. state with a rich history and diverse population, has emerged as a crucial battleground state in the 2020
Presidential Election. Winning Georgia is essential for both Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump,
as the state has been trending Democrat in recent elections, while remaining a Republican stronghold. In 2016, Donald Trump won Georgia by just over 5 points,
making it a significant prize for both parties. In the context of the Georgia election, winning coalitions are vital. Coalitions made up of key demographic groups, such as suburban voters,
African Americans, Hispanics, and Asian Americans, could determine the outcome.
Background on Joe Biden’s Campaign in Georgia
Joe Biden‘s campaign in Georgia has focused on expanding the Democratic base and energizing traditional
Democrat voters. He has visited the state multiple times, aiming to appeal to suburban voters and minority communities. Biden has also emphasized his plans for healthcare,
climate change, and education, which are popular among these groups. Additionally, the Democratic Party’s success in the 2017 and 2018 Georgia elections – with Stacey Abrams coming close to winning the gubernatorial race –
has given Biden’s campaign a strong foundation.
Background on Donald Trump’s Campaign in Georgia
Donald Trump‘s campaign in Georgia has centered around his record as president, particularly on the economy and law
and order issues. Trump has emphasized his support for small businesses and jobs, which is a priority for many Georgians. He has also addressed the issue of public safety,
capitalizing on concerns related to crime and protests. However, Trump’s campaign faces challenges in attracting suburban voters, who have increasingly turned against the Republican Party.
Democratic Coalition: Joe Biden’s campaign in Georgia relies heavily on various coalitions, with African American voters being a critical demographic.
Importance of the African American vote in Georgia
African Americans comprise approximately 30% of the state’s electorate, making their support crucial. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton received about 90% of the African American votes, and securing similar support could significantly impact Biden’s chances.
Biden’s efforts to appeal to this demographic
Campaign promises and policy initiatives
Biden has pledged to address systemic racism, criminal justice reform, and economic inequality if elected. He also supports the expansion of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and increasing minimum wage to $15 per hour – issues that resonate with many African Americans.
Endorsements from notable African American figures and organizations
Notable endorsements include Stacey Abrams, the former Georgia gubernatorial candidate and voting rights activist; Rev. Raphael Warnock, a prominent African American religious leader running for the U.S. Senate; and organizations like the NAACP, Black Voters Matter Fund, and Color of Change.
Challenges Biden faces in securing the African American vote
Historical mistrust of the Democratic Party among some African Americans
Despite Biden’s efforts, there are lingering concerns over past Democratic Party actions, like the “Southern Strategy” and mass incarceration. Some African Americans may still view Republicans as more sympathetic to their needs.
Competition from third-party candidates and the Libertarian Party
The presence of third-party candidates like the Green Party’s Howie Hawkins and the Libertarian Party’s Jo Jorgensen could split the progressive and conservative votes, potentially diluting Biden’s support among African Americans.
Biden also seeks to win over white voters in Georgia, who make up around 50% of the electorate.
Biden’s strategy to appeal to white voters
a. Distance himself from the more progressive wings of his party
Biden has tried to distance himself from progressive positions on issues like defunding the police and single-payer healthcare, which some white voters might find objectionable.
b. Emphasize his moderate stance on issues like law and order, immigration, and foreign policy
He has emphasized his more centrist views, stressing the importance of maintaining law and order, securing the border, and pursuing a strong foreign policy.
Challenges Biden faces in winning over white voters
Perception of Democrats as “soft on crime”
Many white voters view the Democratic Party as too lenient on crime, especially in the context of rising violent crime rates. Biden’s efforts to appear tougher on law and order might not be enough to sway those voters who feel strongly about this issue.
Competition from Trump and the Republican Party
Trump’s successful framing of Biden as too liberal on issues like immigration and foreign policy might make it difficult for Biden to win over white voters who are concerned about these matters.
Biden also aims to appeal to other key Democratic coalitions, including Hispanic/Latino voters.
Importance of this demographic in Georgia and their voting patterns
Hispanics and Latinos constitute around 10% of the state’s population, and they tend to vote Democratic. Biden’s support from this group could significantly influence his chances in Georgia.
Biden’s efforts to appeal to Hispanic/Latino voters
a. Addressing their key concerns and issues
Biden has promised to protect the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which provides temporary work permits to eligible undocumented immigrants who came to the United States as children. He also supports comprehensive immigration reform and the expansion of affordable healthcare for all.
Lastly, Biden seeks to win over suburban women, who are expected to play a significant role in the 2020 election.
Significance of this demographic in the 2020 election
Suburban women are a key voting bloc, especially in swing states like Georgia. According to exit polls from the 2016 election, Clinton won about half of suburban women’s votes nationwide.
Biden’s strategy to win over suburban women
a. Emphasizing his empathetic and compassionate leadership style
Biden has campaigned on his empathetic, caring, and competent demeanor, which might resonate with suburban women who are looking for a leader that can address their concerns about healthcare, the economy, and education.
b. Addressing key issues like affordability and security
Biden has also addressed their concerns on affordability, emphasizing his plans to lower prescription drug costs and make education more accessible and affordable. On security, he has highlighted his experience in foreign policy and law enforcement, attempting to position himself as a reliable leader who can keep communities safe.
Challenges he faces in securing their support
a. Competition from Trump and the Republican Party’s successful messaging
The GOP, under Trump, has successfully framed Biden as a “Trojan Horse for the radical left,” making it challenging for Biden to win over suburban women who are concerned about progressive policies.
b. Perceptions of his record on criminal justice and immigration
Biden’s past record on crime legislation, particularly the 1994 Crime Bill, might be a hindrance for him among suburban women who are concerned about issues of criminal justice reform and racial equality. Likewise, his stance on immigration could alienate some voters if they feel that he is too lenient or does not prioritize border security enough.
I Republican Coalition:
Donald Trump
Trump’s campaign in Georgia relies heavily on various coalitions, one of the most significant being white evangelical Christians. This demographic holds immense importance in Georgia elections, with many consistently voting for Republican candidates.
Importance of this demographic and their voting patterns
White evangelical Christians make up a sizable portion of Georgia’s electorate, and they have consistently supported Republican candidates over the past few decades. According to exit polls, Trump received approximately 81% of the white evangelical vote in Georgia during the 2016 presidential election.
Campaign promises and policy initiatives
Trump sought to appeal to white evangelical Christians by making several campaign promises and policy initiatives. He pledged to appoint conservative justices to the Supreme Court, protect religious freedoms, and support pro-life policies.
Endorsements from influential religious figures
Trump also secured endorsements from influential religious figures, such as evangelist Franklin Graham and Jerry Falwell Jr., the late president of Liberty University. These endorsements helped Trump solidify his support among white evangelical Christians in Georgia.
Challenges Trump faces in securing the white evangelical vote
Despite his efforts, Trump still faces challenges in securing the white evangelical vote. Competition from third-party candidates and the Libertarian Party may split this demographic’s support. Furthermore, some evangelicals have been turned off by Trump’s divisive rhetoric on various issues.
Rural Voters
Another crucial coalition for Trump in Georgia is rural voters. These individuals constitute a significant portion of the electorate in the state, and they have historically voted for Republican candidates.
Importance of rural voters and their voting patterns
Rural voters in Georgia have consistently voted for Republican candidates due to their strong stance on issues such as law and order, immigration, and gun rights. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump received approximately 57% of the rural vote in Georgia.
Emphasis on law and order, immigration, and gun rights
Trump sought to appeal to rural voters by emphasizing these issues. He promised to strengthen border security, uphold the Second Amendment, and support law enforcement agencies.
Perception as a champion for traditional American values
Trump also positioned himself as a champion for traditional American values, which resonated with many rural voters in Georgia.
Challenges Trump faces in securing the rural vote
Despite his efforts, Trump still encounters challenges in securing the rural vote. The Democratic Party and Joe Biden have been competitive on economic issues, which may sway some rural voters. Moreover, Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on rural communities, potentially affecting their support for his campaign.
Other Key Republican Coalitions
Other key coalitions for Trump in Georgia include senior citizens and gun owners.
Senior Citizens
Senior citizens in Georgia make up a significant portion of the electorate, and they have historically voted for Republican candidates. Trump sought to appeal to this demographic by addressing social security, Medicare, and healthcare issues. He also emphasized his perception as a strong leader on national security and foreign policy.
Gun Owners
Gun owners in Georgia are a significant voting bloc, and they have consistently supported Republican candidates. Trump’s efforts to appeal to this demographic included supporting the Second Amendment and gun rights. He also secured endorsements from prominent gun rights organizations and figures.
Conclusion
Summary: In the closely contested state of Georgia, both President Biden and former President Trump have built strong coalitions. For Biden, this includes suburban women, people of color, and younger voters. On the other hand, Trump’s base consists of rural areas, white evangelical Christians, and older voters.
Key Coalitions:
Biden’s coalition is essential for him to secure a victory in Georgia, which he did in the 2020 presidential election. However, Trump’s base remains strong, and he is making every effort to mobilize his supporters to turn out in large numbers.
Current Polling Data and Election Trends:
According to the latest polls, the race between Biden and Trump in Georgia is tight. The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Biden with a slim lead of 1.3 percentage points. However, election trends suggest that the state is becoming more competitive, with growing numbers of suburban voters and people of color shifting to the Democratic Party.
Predictions:
Based on the coalition-building efforts of both candidates and the challenges they face, it is challenging to predict a clear winner in Georgia. However, Biden’s gains among suburban voters and people of color could be crucial in securing his victory. Trump, meanwhile, is relying on turning out his base to overcome any potential deficit.
Implications:
A Biden victory in Georgia would have significant implications for the national election and American politics. It would demonstrate that the Democratic Party is making gains in traditionally red states and could provide momentum for the party heading into the midterm elections. For Trump, a loss in Georgia would be a blow to his political legacy and could dampen Republican efforts to maintain control of the Senate.
